Alpha Release Warning
This software is in Alpha. These financial models are probabilistic projections using specific input parameters estimating future volatility. They are not in any way guarantees. Results should be used for strategic planning and scenario analysis only, not as advice for any purpose, certainly not as tax or investment advice.
Quick Start Guide
Use this guide to understand our risk-based modeling before building your first plan.
Why this is relevant to you in a 5 minute video!
And next watch the quick-start video! Or read the instructions below.
- Dashboard: Navigate to the Dashboard to see all of your funds and companies.
- Get started by copying one of our templates. Play with it, edit it, have fun experimenting!
- Click on a company to edit the inputs and see the company level projections.
- Click on a fund to create fund scenarios and see the projections.
- Take care: there is no protection against physically impossible parameters. Impossible input will give you impossible results!
- Structure: Go to the Structure (Funds & Companies) page to create your first Fund and Company.
- Company Inputs: Click on one of your companies to enter its workspace. If you want a new business plan scenario, click on New Scenario. Otherwise go to the business plan you want, click on Edit Inputs to begin / change the data, or View Results if your input data is complete to go straight to the Projections tab. Use the tabs to enter:
- Revenue items, Expense items, and Staffing items.
- Initial cash on hand, Investment rounds, Credit facilities.
- Treasury management, and Valuation model.
- Fund Inputs: Click on one of your funds to enter its workspace. If you want a new fund scenario, click on New Scenario. Otherwise go to the fund scenario you want, click on Edit Scenario to alter the plans each company runs, or View Results if your input data is complete to go straight to the Projections tab.
- Projections: Finally, go to the Projections page. Use the dropdown menu to switch between views:
- Conventional: Standard deterministic planning, as used in MPT for funds, or typical business planning.
- Real World: Single-company real world volatility planning. Step through 1000 equally likely typical real-world outcomes.
- Likely real-world outcomes: Fan plot of the spread of all 1000 real world most likely outcomes.
Antifragile Financial Modeling
Many of you know that a 50% drop followed by a 50% gain leaves you with 75% of your starting capital, not 100%. But not many know the consequence of all aspects of this kind of volatile growth, called non-ergodic growth. Because it can't be calculated with pen and paper, only laborously simulated with computers! We simulate hundreds of equally likely real-world trajectories to show you your likelihood of ruin or success, not just the average outcome. This approach helps you build an "Antifragile" strategy that can withstand and potentially benefit from volatility.
How the modelling is structured
Fund
The top-level container. Represents your investment firm or holding entity. Invests in the Company.
Company
A specific business entity. Contains historical data and settings; and prediction parameters for future scenarios. Needs multiple plans in order to navigate into the future.
Plans
A specific business plan scenario (e.g., "Series A Base") for the company.
Best practices reading the results, choosing parameters
1. The Three-Tier Approach
Don't rely on a single number. We recommend creating three distinct Plans for every Company:
- Base Case (P50): Your honest expectation. Standard growth, standard churn.
- Optimistic (P90): The "White Swan" scenario. Everything goes right.
- Stress Test (P10): The "Black Swan" scenario. Everything goes wrong.
2. Iterative Modeling & The Liquidity Gap
Financial modeling is a loop, not a line. Use the simulation results to find your breaking point.
- Run the simulation (1000+ iterations).
- Check the Cash Balance chart. Look for the P10 (10th Percentile) line.
- Identify the "Liquidity Gap"—the month where the P10 line dips below zero.
- Return to the Capital form and inject a bridge round or credit facility one month prior to the gap.
- Re-run to verify survival. Increase the duration to see if you just get another downturn.
- Try out different levels of ergodicity correction. How does that help?
Cash vs. Accrual: This model uses Cash Basis accounting. Revenue is recognized when cash is received, and expenses are recognized when cash is paid out. This is critical for startup survival modeling, as "profit" on paper does not pay the bills. Ensure your inputs reflect cash movements (e.g., if you invoice in Jan but get paid in Mar, enter the revenue start month as Mar).
3. The Starter Strategy for growth parameters
If you are unsure where to begin, we recommend starting with Flat Volatility. This establishes a baseline range without the complexity of heavy-tailed distributions.
Starter Configuration
- Model Type: Simple Model
- Mean: 1.34% (Average Monthly Growth, calculated from min and max)
- Min %: -30.00% (Worst Month; negative means loss)
- Max %: 32.68% (Best Month)
- Steps: 1 or 2 (smaller means higher volatility; best to stay below 5)
4. Advanced Strategy for growth parameters
For specific risk profiles, use these tested configurations to model asymmetric or fat-tailed risks:
Comprehensive (Asymmetric & broad & fat-tailed risk)
Recommended when you want to go beyond the simple min-max-average.
- Simple Mode: Choose from the pull-down options.
- Advanced Mode: Take out your stats texts and calculate!
Student's-T (Fat Tails)
For those who want it. Lacks certain useful aspects of the Comprehensive.
- Scale (Vol): 2.0
- Freedom (DoF): 3.0
Technical Appendix
1. Input Field Glossary
Staffing Form
| Label | Purpose | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Role Name | Title of the position (e.g., 'Sales Rep', 'Developer'). | Required, must not be empty. |
| Annual Salary | Base annual salary per person in this role. | Required, must be a valid number. |
| Hiring Plan | How employees are added over time (Fixed Count or Monthly Rate). | Select: 'fixed_count' or 'monthly_rate'. |
| Target Headcount | Maximum number of people to hire for this role. | Required, integer >= 1. |
| Hiring Pace | Hire 1 person every X months. (e.g., 1 = monthly, 3 = quarterly). | Required if 'monthly_rate', integer >= 1. |
| Start Month | Month number (1-60) when hiring begins. | Required, integer 1-60. |
| Annual Increase (%) | Expected annual salary increase (e.g., 3.5 for 3.5%). | Optional, 0-100. |
Revenue Form
| Label | Purpose | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Name | Name of the revenue stream (e.g., SaaS Subs). | Required, must not be empty. |
| Source Type | Category of revenue (e.g., Sales, Subscription). | Select: Sales, Subscription, Service, Other. |
| Initial Amount | Starting revenue amount. | Required number. |
| Growth Rate (%/mo) | Monthly growth rate percentage. | Optional number. |
| Cost of Rev (%) | Cost of revenue percentage. | Optional number. |
| Frequency | How often revenue is recognized. | Select: Monthly, One-time, Quarterly, Annually. |
| Start Month | Month in which revenue stream begins. | Required number. |
| End Month (Opt) | Month in which revenue stream ends. | Optional number. |
| Model Type | Type of volatility model to apply. | Averages, Simple, NRIG, or Student-T. |
| Mean / Drift | Expected Monthly Return. | Optional number. |
| Min % | Minimum percentage deviation (Flat). | Required if Simple, < Max %. |
| Max % | Maximum percentage deviation (Flat). | Required if Simple, > Min %. |
| Steps | Number of intervals between min and max (Flat). | Required if Simple. |
| Scale (Vol) | Volatility Scale (Student-T). | Required if Student-T. |
| Freedom (Deg) | Degrees of freedom (Student-T). | Required if Student-T. |
| Likelyhood (Alpha) | Tail Weight (NRIG). | Required if NRIG. |
| Skew (Beta) | Imbalance (NRIG). | Required if NRIG. |
| Scale (Delta) | Volatility Scale (NRIG). | Required if NRIG. |
Expense Form
| Label | Purpose | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Name | Name of the expense item (e.g., Salaries). | Required, must not be empty. |
| Category | Category of expense (e.g., OpEx, CapEx). | Select: OpEx, CapEx, Payroll, Marketing. |
| Initial Amount | Starting expense amount. | Required number. |
| Growth Rate (%/mo) | Monthly growth rate percentage. | Optional number. |
| % of Revenue | Percentage of revenue tied to expense. | Optional number. |
| Frequency | How often expense is incurred. | Select: Monthly, One-time, Quarterly, Annually. |
| Start Month | Month in which expense begins. | Required number. |
| End Month (Opt) | Month in which expense ends. | Optional number. |
| Volatility Inputs | Same model options as Revenue. | See Revenue Volatility. |
Capital Injection
| Label | Purpose | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Source Name | Name of the capital source (e.g., Seed Round). | Required, must not be empty. |
| Amount | Amount of capital injection. | Required number. |
| Month | Month in which capital is injected. | Required integer 1-120. |
Capital Growth Policy
| Label | Purpose | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Model Type | Type of volatility model to apply. | Selection required. |
| Expected Return | Expected monthly return percentage. | Required number. |
| Volatility Params | Min/Max (Simple) or Distribution params. | Dependent on Model Type. |
Dividends
| Label | Purpose | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Enable Dividends | Toggle dividends payout. | Boolean. |
| Safety Threshold | Minimum cash balance required before dividends are paid. | Required number. |
| Payout Percentage | Percentage of surplus cash distributed as dividends. | Required number 0-100. |
Credit Facility
| Label | Purpose | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Max Limit | Maximum credit facility limit. | Required number. |
| Interest Rate (%) | Interest rate on the credit facility. | Required number. |
| Rate Type | Annual (APR) or Monthly. | Boolean. |
Valuation
| Label | Purpose | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Valuation Method | Method used for valuation. | Revenue Multiple or EBITDA Multiple. |
| Revenue Multiple (x) | Multiple applied to revenue. | Required if Revenue Method. |
| EBITDA Multiple (x) | Multiple applied to EBITDA. | Required if EBITDA Method. |
Authentication
| Label | Purpose | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Username | Required Username. | Required. |
| Required Email. | Required. | |
| Full Name | Required Full Name. | Required. |
| Company Name | Organization Name. | Required (unless Student). |
| Password | Required Password. | Required. |
| Student / Individual | Toggle for individual bypass. | Boolean. |
2. Simulation Parameters
The simulation allows you to model financial performance under different conditions. Volatility can be included for Revenue, Expenses and Capital Growth.
Deterministic
The simulation runs without any volatility. This is the most basic form of modelling that gives you an idea of what to expect without accounting for any unexpected conditions.
NRIG (Normal-Inverse-Gamma)
Used for "Comprehensive Volatility". Captures heavy tails and skewness.
- Alpha (Likelihood): Affects the likelihood of extreme events. Lower values = fatter tails (higher risk of extreme events).
- Beta (Skew): Controls asymmetry. Skew risk towards upside (positive shocks) or downside.
- Delta (Scale): Base volatility scale. Higher values = higher variance.
Student-T
A robust alternative to Normal distribution, handling outliers via degrees of freedom.
- Scale: Spread of the distribution. Higher values = higher volatility.
- Freedom (Degrees): Controls tail thickness. Lower values (3-5) = fatter tails. Higher values converge to Normal distribution.
Flat / Simple
Uniform distribution between a defined Minimum and Maximum percentage deviation.
- Min %: Maximum downside deviation in a single month.
- Max %: Maximum upside deviation in a single month.
- Steps: Granularity of the random walk.
3. UI Logic
"Student / Individual" Bypass
To facilitate access for students and individual researchers who do not belong to a corporate entity, the registration form includes a specific bypass logic.
- ✓When checked, the Company / Organization Name field is immediately disabled.
- ✓The value is programmatically set to
"Individual". - ✓This allows the user to bypass strict organization name validation while maintaining data integrity in the backend.